Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, is embarking on a critical trip to the US capital to meet American leader Donald Trump. This marks the first face-to-face encounter for the two figures following months of rising strains and sharp exchanges.
Agenda for Discussion
The situation in Venezuela, drug trafficking, oil, regional stability, and American military actions on suspected drug vessels are set to be top on the agenda when they gather at the US presidential residence on Tuesday.
Background of Tensions
While the two men were cordial in a telephone conversation following a recent US military operation, Petro has since said he feels there is a "serious risk" of armed intervention targeting Colombia. Trump, in turn, has previously remarked that a military operation in Colombia "seems like a good idea".
Tuesday's meeting comes after months of the two leaders trading barbs. Petro has repeatedly condemned repeated US strikes on alleged drugs boats in the Caribbean and Pacific, as well as the US administration's border policies.
"His stance shifted," Trump was quoted as saying ahead of the Washington talks.
Points of Contention
From Washington's perspective, Trump has accused Petro's administration of not taking sufficient action to halt the flow of cocaine toward the United States, and has vowed to extend strikes to terrestrial objectives across the region.
However, the acrimony appeared to subside after a "cordial" telephone conversation involving the two leaders, which a Colombian official later characterized as an 180-degree turn "from both sides".
Diplomatic Bridge
Per diplomatic sources, a key figure – Rand Paul – was pivotal in setting up the conversation. "I have faith in diplomacy and I thought our relations were going in the wrong direction," the senator was quoted as saying. "My hope is for our relationship to get better."
Border Security and the ELN
Prior to Tuesday's visit, Colombian stated that much of the discussion would focus on mutual US and Colombian worries over security in the neighboring country, with which Colombia has an extensive border.
Much of that frontier is controlled of the ELN. This Colombian guerrilla group, founded in the 1960s, controls drug trafficking, racketeering, contraband, and unlawful extraction in frontier regions and reportedly collaborates with corrupt elements within the Venezuelan government.
For Trump, tackling the threat of the ELN will be vital to guaranteeing security for US companies involved in Venezuela's oil industry. Analysts note that the ELN has the potential to spoil investment plans by attacking foreign investors and employees, as it has in the past attempted in Colombia.
Drug War Cooperation
An equally pressing issue for the two presidents will be the struggle against drug trafficking from Colombia, the global largest source of the narcotic. Earlier this year, Petro instituted a temporary pause on intelligence sharing with US security agencies after comments from Washington.
The US has, in turn, officially listed Colombia as a country that has "demonstrably failed" in combating drug trafficking. It has also enacted sanctions on figures in Petro's government, including the president and his relatives.
"Combating the cocaine trade is impossible without Colombia," stated a regional security expert. "Any move to sever Colombian cooperation could also undermine all investigations."
Possible Scenarios
But even with multiple issues for cooperation, the potential for a clash remains. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," observed a ex-official. "My suspicion is that Petro will walk in with some concessions to avert Trump's ire... However, it's unpredictable."
For the Colombian leader, even a contentious encounter could be advantageous. His presidential term ends in the coming months, and the results of the meeting could impact the political future of his preferred successor.
"In some ways, he's kind of in a favorable position," noted a regional expert. "If it goes well undermines criticism... If it doesn't, he's defending Colombian interests. He could turn that in his favour."
