The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Drives Aston Villa's Improbable Championship Bid

A mere eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or the reason of the team's broader struggles.

This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. When Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?

It remains an exceptionally difficult question to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have piled up.

As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG notably superior than the other team. For a side which has put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – however at the moment the margins are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.

His opener originated from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the football into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho might become the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Savoring the Moment

However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be leading a title charge and appearing as an essential England player.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.