Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
